Can the Scottish team at last end the All Blacks hoodoo?

Rugby action
The All Blacks introduced three changes to the side that defeated the Irish team

Autumn Nations Series: Scottish team versus All Blacks

Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, their chicanery, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Rugby action
Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the narrow loss to the All Blacks in 2022

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their final surge secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.

Jessica Smith
Jessica Smith

A tech enthusiast and writer passionate about exploring how innovation impacts society and drives progress.