Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Re-entry

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.